Convexly

The tool evaluates every Polymarket wallet that has at least twenty resolved positions, assigning a skill score based on three forward‑looking pillars: calibration, conviction, and discipline. Calibration measures whether a wallet generates profit despite imprecise probability estimates, using a baseline‑adjusted Brier score. Conviction gauges the share of realized profit coming from the wallet’s single largest event, indicating repeatable edge versus one‑off luck. Discipline reflects betting concentration, with fewer, larger bets associated with higher signed profit.

A daily leaderboard presents the top 100 wallets, refreshed each day, and the interface allows any wallet to be inspected in roughly ten seconds. The methodology is described as a frozen‑coefficient, reproducible approach applied to a dataset of 8,656 Polymarket wallets, with out‑of‑sample validation showing a Spearman correlation above 0.5 and statistically significant results.

The service is free to browse, targeting prediction‑market traders and researchers who need a transparent way to differentiate skillful participants from those whose performance is driven mainly by luck.